Prediction Markets

Choose this exercise

Purpose: Aggregate distributed knowledge across mixed-background groups to estimate probabilities for key strategic questions.

Use it when: Use when an organization faces uncertain strategic choices and needs honest forecasts from staff across different departments rather than top-down assumptions.

Skip it when: Skip when dealing with established facts, settled operational plans, or purely subjective value debates that cannot be framed as testable future outcomes.

Group arrangement: Mixed small groups of 4 to 8 participants (for example, 6 participants form 1 group of 6; 17 participants form groups of 6, 6, and 5; 24 participants form 3 groups of 8)

Timing: Adapted from the 45 to 90 minute range in Relationship Makers Handbook to a concise 50-minute agenda.

Materials and tools

• 1 printed Market Estimation Sheet per team
• 1 pen per participant
• 1 flipchart pad and markers per team
• 1 digital countdown timer visible to the room

Before participants arrive

1. Draft or select 3 clear, bounded outcome statements for estimation. For example: Statement 1: 'Project Falcon will launch before end of Q3 without scope cuts.' Statement 2: 'Client retention will remain above 90 percent over the next two quarters.' Statement 3: 'At least 30 percent of staff will adopt the new workflow tool within 60 days of release.'
2. Write the 3 selected statements clearly on the main room board or project them on screen.
3. Place tables with flipchart paper and Market Estimation Sheets around the room.
4. Set up a master scoreboard on a central wall or screen to collect team probability ratings.

Say this to open

Leaders often make decisions inside an echo chamber. Today we are testing collective forecasting. In mixed groups, you will map your diverse skills, review three specific future outcomes, and assign price-point probabilities from 0 to 100 on whether each outcome will happen. Your goal is to combine different kinds of experience to produce grounded forecasts.

How to run it

1. Form diverse teams 5 minutes

   Welcome the group and read the opening script. Divide participants into teams of 4 to 8 people, mixing people from different functional areas, tenures, or disciplines. For example, 17 people form two tables of 6 and one of 5. Direct teams to their designated tables.

2. Map group background and knowledge 10 minutes

   Have each participant introduce themselves to their table by naming their functional specialty, past industries worked in, hobbies, and areas of outside interest. Each team records a list of at least eight distinct domain skills or perspectives present on their flipchart.

3. Score probability values 15 minutes

   Point teams to the 3 outcome statements displayed on the main room board. Groups discuss the likelihood of each event. In an estimation market, price reflects probability from 0 (impossible) to 100 (certain). Each group debates the evidence, draws on relevant member background, and agrees on a single consolidated price point for each statement on their Market Estimation Sheet.

4. Post and compare forecasts 10 minutes

   One representative from each team writes their group's assigned probability score for each outcome on the central room board. Allow 3 minutes for silent review of variance across teams, then invite two teams with divergent scores on the same item to state the key facts or perspectives that shaped their estimate.

5. Debrief forecasting and blind spots 10 minutes

   Lead a whole-room discussion on how diverse perspectives altered individual assumptions. Choose 2 debrief questions and take responses from 3 to 4 volunteers across different tables.

Debrief questions

• Where did two teams assign very different probability values, and what background information caused that difference?
• Which personal skill or past background at your table surfaced a risk or opportunity that others missed?
• How can leadership collect probabilities like this before locking in key initiatives?

Finished output: A comparative scoreboard showing probability scores (0 to 100) across all teams for 3 strategic statements, with underlying assumptions recorded on group worksheets.

Remote

Form breakout rooms of 4 to 8 people. Use a shared online spreadsheet or virtual whiteboard with columns for group expertise, outcome statements, and probability numbers (0 to 100). The facilitator projects the consolidated master sheet during step 4.

Hybrid

Seat in-person participants together and group remote participants into their own remote breakout teams. Both in-person and remote tables enter final scores directly into a shared cloud document visible to the room.

Access and participation choices

• Participants may choose not to share personal hobbies or background details and may focus strictly on functional work experience.
• Individuals who prefer not to speak aloud during the debate can record evidence and points in writing on the group sheet.
• Any participant may pass on whole-room sharing without explanation.

If the session gets stuck

Groups default to a simple mathematical average rather than discussing their different perspectives.

Remind teams that the goal is not averaging guesses, but surfacing specific domain facts that persuade peers to adjust their probability score.

One dominant individual insists on their own forecast and ignores other team members.

Ask the table to pause and invite the participant with the least overlapping background to offer one counter-argument before finalizing the score.

Terms used here

• Estimation Market: A method of gathering group intelligence by treating probability as a price between 0 and 100, where 0 means impossible and 100 means guaranteed.